<!--BRIEF_HERO:{"bias_label":"Bullish","long_pct":60,"long_opens":3,"short_opens":2,"net_long":2,"net_short":0,"key_thesis":"Bitcoin's July rally looks shaky with a contentious fork and a major protocol exploit causing jitters.","trade_ideas":[{"symbol":"BERA","side":"short","rationale":"Short setup showing +$8.51 in open PnL, trending down."},{"symbol":"CRDO","side":"long","rationale":"Long Pulse, but no strong recent PnL – watch for setup."},{"symbol":"DASH","side":"short","rationale":"Short setup showing +$4.41 in open PnL."},{"symbol":"SOL","side":"short","rationale":"Short setup showing +$2.94 in open PnL."}],"top_symbols":[{"ticker":"CRDO","long":1,"short":0},{"ticker":"GME","long":2,"short":0},{"ticker":"LLY","long":0,"short":2},{"ticker":"SOXL","long":0,"short":0}],"last_updated_utc":"2026-07-12T07:00:32.331Z","date_label":"July 12, 2026","asset_class":"crypto","regime":"bull","verdict":"Buy pullbacks to prior resistance, but keep longs tight and demand structure before adding size.","confidence":"moderate","horizon":"Intraday · 24h","do_list":["Buy dips toward $66k VPVR node, watch for buy-the-rumor action.","Focus on crypto leaders, not laggards with no catalysts.","Enter breakouts cautiously; retest confirms before scaling in."],"avoid_list":["Chasing pumps above $68k without volume confirmation.","Adding to crowded longs facing overhead resistance.","Rotating into assets showing clear breakdown signs."],"risks":["BIP 110 fork support tanks to <10% - Bitcoin weakness.","Bonzo Lend exploit contagion rattles Hedera ecosystem.","SEC news flow turns sour on UK regulatory clarity."],"cross_market_note":"Crypto’s constructive bias mirrors stocks, but a protocol exploit adds specific crypto-native risk today.","focus_tickers":[{"ticker":"AIOT","side":"short","spark":[-3.2,-29.2,-55,-68.2,-74.5,-8],"why":"Short on news; recent PnL up $66, now seeing weakness."},{"ticker":"DUSK","side":"long","spark":[13.9,3.6,21.4,59.3],"why":"Long on news; winner closed +$37, strength persists."},{"ticker":"RIVER","side":"short","spark":[0.4,-8.9,-21.3,-28.7,-34.3,-6],"why":"Short on news; winner closed +$28, still tracking lower."},{"ticker":"BERA","side":"short","spark":[-3,-34,-38.2],"why":"Short setup showing +$8.51 in open PnL, trending down."},{"ticker":"CRDO","side":"long","spark":[-4.8,-37,6.3,1.6],"why":"Long Pulse, but no strong recent PnL – watch for setup."}],"pulse_7d":[{"date":"2026-07-06","long":18,"short":20},{"date":"2026-07-07","long":11,"short":7},{"date":"2026-07-08","long":16,"short":17},{"date":"2026-07-09","long":22,"short":2},{"date":"2026-07-10","long":20,"short":9},{"date":"2026-07-11","long":3,"short":0},{"date":"2026-07-12","long":2,"short":2}],"compare":{"other_class":"stocks","other_class_label":"Stocks","other_bias_label":"Bullish","other_long_pct":70,"other_long_opens":14,"other_short_opens":6,"other_brief_slug":null}}-->
## Bitcoin holds July gains, but rally faces tricky fork and exploit headwinds.
Market's constructive today, but crypto faces a few hurdles. Bitcoin grabbed solid July gains, now facing down a contentious fork.
## Top closed crypto trades (24h)
| Asset | Side | PnL | ROI on $700 |
|---|---|---|---|
| [AIOT](/coins/aiot) | SHORT | +$66.50 | +9.50% |
| [DUSK](/coins/dusk) | LONG | +$37.90 | +5.41% |
| [RIVER](/coins/river) | SHORT | +$28.30 | +4.04% |
## Open crypto positions leading right now
| Asset | Side | Unrealized PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| [BERA](/coins/bera) | SHORT | +$8.51 | +1.44% |
| [FHE](/coins/fhe) | LONG | +$5.61 | +2.77% |
| [DASH](/coins/dash) | SHORT | +$4.41 | +1.14% |
| [PUMP](/coins/pump) | SHORT | +$3.60 | +3.66% |
| [SOL](/coins/sol) | SHORT | +$2.94 | +0.74% |
BIP 110’s zero miner support suggests the fork isn't happening, but the debate itself creates noise. Michael Saylor and Adam Back lambasting it shows the ordinals tribalism isn't fading. This proposal is essentially dead on arrival, good riddance.
Bonzo Lend’s $9M oracle exploit on Hedera is tougher to dismiss. It’s a reminder that DeFi’s core infrastructure still has cracks. This could weigh on Hedera tokens and trigger broader DeFi caution, despite the UK finally showing regulatory seriousness. Empery Digital selling BTC to fund AI data centers shows capital’s pivot; they're prioritizing real-world assets.
Today favors picking spots in a bull regime. We're seeing strong internal Pulse momentum, mirroring stocks like [NVDA](/stocks/nvda). Watch our open leaders, especially shorts like [BERA](/coins/bera) and [DASH](/coins/dash), to ride any weakness. Check out [explore Radiant algorithms](/algorithms) for more.
## Sources tracked
Headlines from the last 24h were aggregated and analysed from CryptoPanic, CoinDesk, CoinTelegraph, Decrypt and Bitcoin Magazine. We summarise market-moving facts in our own words; we do not republish third-party content.
- **CoinDesk** — Bitcoin’s BIP 110 fork deadline nears with miner support at zero
- **CoinDesk** — Lending protocol Bonzo loses 77% of value locked as $9 million oracle exploit rattles Hedera
- **CoinDesk** — Crypto IPO market stalls as capital rotates to AI and macro uncertainty weighs
- **Decrypt** — Nano Banana 2 Lite vs. Nano Banana 2: When to Save Your Money and When to Upgrade
- **CoinDesk** — Bitcoin treasury company Empery Digital sold about half of its BTC stack
- **CoinTelegraph** — Bonzo Lend loses $9M in oracle exploit on Hedera
- **CoinTelegraph** — Bitcoin bulls Michael Saylor, Adam Back slam BIP-110 Ordinals proposal
- **CoinTelegraph** — Bitcoin price gains nearly 10% in July, but traders still see BTC copying 2022 bear market
- **CoinDesk** — Ripple once weighed shutting down and handing XRP to shareholders, CEO says
- **CoinTelegraph** — Empery Digital shares rise after selling Bitcoin to fund AI data center project